Mar 29 - Apr 4 Filter
Date 12:18pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Sun
Mar 29 5:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 11.6% 13.0%
6:21pm AUD HIA New Home Sales 3.9% 8.6%
6:30pm USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
7:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -9.4% -9.1% -10.2%
Mon
Mar 30 4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.3B 1.3B 1.2B
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 38K 34K 32K
5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -34 -33 -33
10:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
11:30am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
2:05pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -35 -35
7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI 31.6
7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y -4.6% -5.9%
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.1%
8:00pm AUD RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks
8:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.5% 0.6%
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.4% -1.3%
10:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence -41.2
10:20pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
Tue
Mar 31 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -17.6% -18.7%
2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.99
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 53K 40K
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.4% 0.0%
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m -1.0% -0.9%
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.7% 1.2%
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m -0.6% -1.0%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.2% 1.4%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.4% -0.1%
9:00am GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -18.5% -18.5%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 34.3 34.2
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 27.8 25.0
6:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 31.7
7:50pm JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index -55 -24
7:50pm JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index -26 -9
8:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.5% -3.7%
8:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m -0.5% 0.2%
Wed
Apr 1 1:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 19.1%
2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.9%
1st-9th GBP Halifax HPI m/m -2.0% -2.3%
3:30am CHF SVME PMI 33.0 32.6
4:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 34.0 34.0
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 34.9 34.7
4:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.2B -5.7B
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.2%
7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 158.4%
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -660K -697K
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 35.7 35.8
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.3% -7.7%
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m -1.7% -3.3%
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 32.4 29.0
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.3M
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 9.3M 9.1M
2:10pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
2:45pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 6.8% 6.4%
8:30pm AUD Trade Balance 0.70B 0.97B
10:00pm NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -4.6%
Thu
Apr 2 2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -1.5% -1.8%
All Day ALL G20 Meetings
4:00am CHF Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks
4:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 27.6 27.8
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.50%
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 653K 652K
10:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 1.5% -1.9%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 3B
6:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 32.2
Fri
Apr 3 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m -0.3% -0.5%
3:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.0% 0.2%
4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 40.1 40.1
4:30am GBP Services PMI 43.6 43.2
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change -662K -651K
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.1%
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%
10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 41.9 41.6
11:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
12:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Sat
Apr 4 10:00am NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift
12:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift
Monday, August 3, 2009
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Forex Glossary
Forex Glossary
Ask (Offer) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Aussie — a Forex slang name for the Australian dollar.
Bank Rate — the percentage rate at which central bank of a country lends money to the country's commercial banks.
Bid — price of the demand, the price you sell for.
Broker — the market participating body which serves as the middleman between retail traders and larger commercial institutions.
Cable — a Forex traders slang word GBP/USD currency pair.
Carry Trade — in Forex, holding a position with a positive overnight interest return in hope of gaining profits, without closing the position, just for the central banks interest rates difference.
CFD — a Contract for Difference — special trading instrument that allows financial speculation on stocks, commodities and other instruments without actually buying.
Commission — broker commissions for operation handling.
CPI — consumer price index the statistical measure of inflation based upon changes of prices of a specified set of goods.
EA (Expert Advisor) — an automated script which is used by the trading platform software to manage positions and orders automatically without (or with little) manual control.
ECN Broker — a type of Forex brokerage firm that provide its clients direct access to other Forex market participants. ECN brokers don't discourage scalping, don't trade against the client, don't charge spread (low spread is defined by current market prices) but charge commissions for every order.
ECB (European Central Bank) — the main regulatory body of the European Union financial system.
Fed (Federal Reserve) — the main regulatory body of the United States of America financial system, which division — FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — regulates, among other things, federal interest rates.
Fibonacci Retracements — the levels with a high probability of trend break or bounce, calculated as the 23.6%, 32.8%, 50% and 61.8% of the trend range.
Flat (Square) — neutral state when all your positions are closed.
Fundamental Analysis — the analysis based only on news, economic indicators and global events.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — is a measure of the national income and output for the country's economy; it's one of the most important Forex indicators.
GTC (Good Till Cancelled) — order to buy or sell of a currency with a fixed price or worse. The order is alive (good) until execution or cancellation.
Hedging — maintaining a market position which secures the existing open positions in the opposite direction.
Jobber — a slang word for a trader which is aimed toward fast but small and short-term profit from an intra-day trading. Jobber rarely leaves open positions overnight.
Kiwi — a Forex slang name for the New Zealand currency — New Zealand dollar.
Leading Indicators — a composite index (year 1992 = 100%) of ten most important macroeconomic indicators that predicts future (6-9 months) economic activity.
Limit Order — order for a broker to buy the lot for fixed or lesser price or sell the lot for fixed or better price. Such price is called limit price.
Liquidity — the measure of markets which describes relationship between the trading volume and the price change.
Long — the position which is in a Buy direction. In Forex, the primary currency when bought is long and another is short.
Loss — the loss from closing long position at lower rate than opening or short position with higher rate than opening, or if the profit from a position closing was lower than broker commission on it.
Lot — definite amount of units or amount of money accepted for operations handling (usually it is a multiple of 100).
Margin — money, the investor needs to keep at broker account to execute trades. It supplies the possible losses which may occur in margin trading.
Margin Account — account which is used to hold investor's deposited money for FOREX trading.
Margin Call — demand of a broker to deposit more margin money to the margin account when the amount in it falls below certain minimum.
Market Order — order to buy or sell a lot for a current market price.
Market Price — the current price for which the currency is traded for on the market.
Momentum — the measure of the currency's ability to move in the given direction.
Moving Average (MA) — one of the most basic technical indicators. It shows the average rate calculated over a series of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA) etc. are just the ways of weighing the rates and the periods.
Offer (Ask) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Open Position (Trade) — position on buying (long) or selling (short) for a currency pair.
Order — order for a broker to buy or sell the currency with a certain rate.
Pivot Point — the primary support/resistance point calculated basing on the previous trend's High, Low and Close prices.
Pip (Point) — the last digit in the rate (e.g. for EUR/USD 1 point = 0.0001).
Profit (Gain) — positive amount of money gained for closing the position.
Principal Value — the initial amount of money of the invested.
Realized Profit/Loss — gain/loss for already closed positions.
Resistance — price level for which the intensive selling can lead to price increasing (up-trend).
Scalping — a style of trading notable by many positions that are opened for extremely small and short-term profits.
Settled (Closed) Position — closed positions for which all needed transactions has been made.
Slippage — execution of order for a price different than expected (ordered), main reasons for slippage are — "fast" market, low liquidity and low broker's ability to execute orders.
Spread — difference between ask and bid prices for a currency pair.
Standard Lot — 100,000 units of the base currency of the currency pair, which you are buying or selling.
Stop-Limit Order — order to sell or buy a lot for a certain price or worse.
Stop-Loss Order — order to sell or buy a lot when the market reaches certain price. It is used to avoid extra losses when market moves in the opposite direction. Usually is a combination of stop-order and limit-order.
Support — price level for which intensive buying can lead to the price decreasing (down-trend).
Swap — overnight payment for holding your position. Since you are not physically receiving the currency you buy, your broker should pay you the interest rate difference between the two currencies of the pair. It can be negative or positive.
Technical Analysis — the analysis based only on the technical market data (quotes) with the help of various technical indicators.
Trend — direction of market which has been established with influence of different factors.
Unrealized (Floating) Profit/Loss — a profit/loss for your non-closed positions.
Useable Margin — amount of money in the account that can be used for trading.
Used Margin — amount of money in the account already used to hold open positions open.
Volatility — a statistical measure of the number of price changes for a given currency pair in a given period of time.
VPS (Virtual Private Server) — virtual environment hosted on the dedicated server, which can be used to run the programs independent on the user's PC. Forex traders use VPS to host trading platforms and run expert advisors without unexpected interruptions.
source: http://www.earnforex.com/forex_glossary.php
Ask (Offer) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Aussie — a Forex slang name for the Australian dollar.
Bank Rate — the percentage rate at which central bank of a country lends money to the country's commercial banks.
Bid — price of the demand, the price you sell for.
Broker — the market participating body which serves as the middleman between retail traders and larger commercial institutions.
Cable — a Forex traders slang word GBP/USD currency pair.
Carry Trade — in Forex, holding a position with a positive overnight interest return in hope of gaining profits, without closing the position, just for the central banks interest rates difference.
CFD — a Contract for Difference — special trading instrument that allows financial speculation on stocks, commodities and other instruments without actually buying.
Commission — broker commissions for operation handling.
CPI — consumer price index the statistical measure of inflation based upon changes of prices of a specified set of goods.
EA (Expert Advisor) — an automated script which is used by the trading platform software to manage positions and orders automatically without (or with little) manual control.
ECN Broker — a type of Forex brokerage firm that provide its clients direct access to other Forex market participants. ECN brokers don't discourage scalping, don't trade against the client, don't charge spread (low spread is defined by current market prices) but charge commissions for every order.
ECB (European Central Bank) — the main regulatory body of the European Union financial system.
Fed (Federal Reserve) — the main regulatory body of the United States of America financial system, which division — FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) — regulates, among other things, federal interest rates.
Fibonacci Retracements — the levels with a high probability of trend break or bounce, calculated as the 23.6%, 32.8%, 50% and 61.8% of the trend range.
Flat (Square) — neutral state when all your positions are closed.
Fundamental Analysis — the analysis based only on news, economic indicators and global events.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — is a measure of the national income and output for the country's economy; it's one of the most important Forex indicators.
GTC (Good Till Cancelled) — order to buy or sell of a currency with a fixed price or worse. The order is alive (good) until execution or cancellation.
Hedging — maintaining a market position which secures the existing open positions in the opposite direction.
Jobber — a slang word for a trader which is aimed toward fast but small and short-term profit from an intra-day trading. Jobber rarely leaves open positions overnight.
Kiwi — a Forex slang name for the New Zealand currency — New Zealand dollar.
Leading Indicators — a composite index (year 1992 = 100%) of ten most important macroeconomic indicators that predicts future (6-9 months) economic activity.
Limit Order — order for a broker to buy the lot for fixed or lesser price or sell the lot for fixed or better price. Such price is called limit price.
Liquidity — the measure of markets which describes relationship between the trading volume and the price change.
Long — the position which is in a Buy direction. In Forex, the primary currency when bought is long and another is short.
Loss — the loss from closing long position at lower rate than opening or short position with higher rate than opening, or if the profit from a position closing was lower than broker commission on it.
Lot — definite amount of units or amount of money accepted for operations handling (usually it is a multiple of 100).
Margin — money, the investor needs to keep at broker account to execute trades. It supplies the possible losses which may occur in margin trading.
Margin Account — account which is used to hold investor's deposited money for FOREX trading.
Margin Call — demand of a broker to deposit more margin money to the margin account when the amount in it falls below certain minimum.
Market Order — order to buy or sell a lot for a current market price.
Market Price — the current price for which the currency is traded for on the market.
Momentum — the measure of the currency's ability to move in the given direction.
Moving Average (MA) — one of the most basic technical indicators. It shows the average rate calculated over a series of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA) etc. are just the ways of weighing the rates and the periods.
Offer (Ask) — price of the offer, the price you buy for.
Open Position (Trade) — position on buying (long) or selling (short) for a currency pair.
Order — order for a broker to buy or sell the currency with a certain rate.
Pivot Point — the primary support/resistance point calculated basing on the previous trend's High, Low and Close prices.
Pip (Point) — the last digit in the rate (e.g. for EUR/USD 1 point = 0.0001).
Profit (Gain) — positive amount of money gained for closing the position.
Principal Value — the initial amount of money of the invested.
Realized Profit/Loss — gain/loss for already closed positions.
Resistance — price level for which the intensive selling can lead to price increasing (up-trend).
Scalping — a style of trading notable by many positions that are opened for extremely small and short-term profits.
Settled (Closed) Position — closed positions for which all needed transactions has been made.
Slippage — execution of order for a price different than expected (ordered), main reasons for slippage are — "fast" market, low liquidity and low broker's ability to execute orders.
Spread — difference between ask and bid prices for a currency pair.
Standard Lot — 100,000 units of the base currency of the currency pair, which you are buying or selling.
Stop-Limit Order — order to sell or buy a lot for a certain price or worse.
Stop-Loss Order — order to sell or buy a lot when the market reaches certain price. It is used to avoid extra losses when market moves in the opposite direction. Usually is a combination of stop-order and limit-order.
Support — price level for which intensive buying can lead to the price decreasing (down-trend).
Swap — overnight payment for holding your position. Since you are not physically receiving the currency you buy, your broker should pay you the interest rate difference between the two currencies of the pair. It can be negative or positive.
Technical Analysis — the analysis based only on the technical market data (quotes) with the help of various technical indicators.
Trend — direction of market which has been established with influence of different factors.
Unrealized (Floating) Profit/Loss — a profit/loss for your non-closed positions.
Useable Margin — amount of money in the account that can be used for trading.
Used Margin — amount of money in the account already used to hold open positions open.
Volatility — a statistical measure of the number of price changes for a given currency pair in a given period of time.
VPS (Virtual Private Server) — virtual environment hosted on the dedicated server, which can be used to run the programs independent on the user's PC. Forex traders use VPS to host trading platforms and run expert advisors without unexpected interruptions.
source: http://www.earnforex.com/forex_glossary.php
Futures Versus Forex (Foreign Exchange Market)
Todays current futures market is quite unlike the futures of the 19th century. Todays future market is a worldwide one that includes manufactured goods, financial currencies and treasury bonds, and agricultural products.
When you speculate on futures it is not the actual good that is speculated upon rather it is the contract for the goods that is traded as value. Every futures contract includes a buyer and a seller. The following is an example of a futures speculation: A farmer agrees to deliver 1000 bushels of corn to a baker at a price of $5.00 a bushel. If the daily price of corn futures falls to $4.00 a bushel, the farmer's account is credited with $1000 ($5.00 — $4.00 X 1000 bushels) and the baker's account is debited by the same amount. Futures accounts are settled every day.
Using the above as an example this is how the contract settlement would play out: If the price of corn futures is still at $4.00 the farmer will have made $1000 on the futures contract and the baker will have lost an equal amount. However, the baker can now purchase corn on the open market at $4.00 a bushel — $1000 less than the original contract, so the amount he lost on the futures contract is made up by the cheaper cost of corn. Also, the farmer must sell his corn on the open market for $4.00 a bushel, less than what he anticipated when entering the futures contract, but the profit generated by the futures contract makes up the difference.
Speculators profit by daily fluctuations in the futures market by choosing to buy from the seller (buying short) or from the buyer (buying long).
The FOREX market has advantages over the futures market. FOREX is the largest financial market in the world. It is a liquid market and stop orders can be executed more easily and with less slippage than in other markets. The FOREX market is open 5 days a week, 24 hours a day. Traders can take advantages of opportunities as they become available. FOREX transactions are usually instantly executed. FOREX transactions are commission free. Brokers earn money on the spread.
Some investors feel that due to built in safeguards that FOREX trading is safer than futures trading.
source: http://www.earnforex.com/articles/futures_versus_forex_foreign_exchange_market.php
When you speculate on futures it is not the actual good that is speculated upon rather it is the contract for the goods that is traded as value. Every futures contract includes a buyer and a seller. The following is an example of a futures speculation: A farmer agrees to deliver 1000 bushels of corn to a baker at a price of $5.00 a bushel. If the daily price of corn futures falls to $4.00 a bushel, the farmer's account is credited with $1000 ($5.00 — $4.00 X 1000 bushels) and the baker's account is debited by the same amount. Futures accounts are settled every day.
Using the above as an example this is how the contract settlement would play out: If the price of corn futures is still at $4.00 the farmer will have made $1000 on the futures contract and the baker will have lost an equal amount. However, the baker can now purchase corn on the open market at $4.00 a bushel — $1000 less than the original contract, so the amount he lost on the futures contract is made up by the cheaper cost of corn. Also, the farmer must sell his corn on the open market for $4.00 a bushel, less than what he anticipated when entering the futures contract, but the profit generated by the futures contract makes up the difference.
Speculators profit by daily fluctuations in the futures market by choosing to buy from the seller (buying short) or from the buyer (buying long).
The FOREX market has advantages over the futures market. FOREX is the largest financial market in the world. It is a liquid market and stop orders can be executed more easily and with less slippage than in other markets. The FOREX market is open 5 days a week, 24 hours a day. Traders can take advantages of opportunities as they become available. FOREX transactions are usually instantly executed. FOREX transactions are commission free. Brokers earn money on the spread.
Some investors feel that due to built in safeguards that FOREX trading is safer than futures trading.
source: http://www.earnforex.com/articles/futures_versus_forex_foreign_exchange_market.php
Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System.
Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only about 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.
There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.
Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.
Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.
So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
FOREX WORLD TRADING TIMES
The dollar’s role is being challenged as the world’s main reserve currency!!
What will be the next major currency: Yuan or Euro??
THE Chinese used to call dollars mei jin, which means “American gold”. Buying black-market dollars was considered the safest way to protect one’s savings. Yet in June when Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, told students at Peking University that China’s official holdings of Treasury bonds were safe, the audience laughed. Faith in the greenback is waning.
In the build-up to the annual summit of G8 countries, which began on July 8th in the Italian city of L’Aquila, officials in China, Russia and India all called for an end to the dollar’s dominance in the international monetary system. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, declared on July 5th that the dollar system is “flawed”; his central bank has been reducing its dollar holdings. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, repeated its call for a new global reserve currency in June and is now taking the first steps towards turning the yuan into a global currency.
Beijing is particularly influential in this debate. The dollar accounts for 65% of the world’s foreign-exchange reserves (see chart), only slightly less than a decade ago and well ahead of the euro’s 26% share. Three-quarters of all reserves are in the hands of emerging economies; China alone holds one-third of the global stash.
So China has particular cause to worry that America’s massive printing of money in response to the financial crisis will undermine the value of its dollar reserves. There is much domestic anger about the potential losses China may face as a result of its lending to rich Americans. The government would like to diversify out of dollars: its new purchases of Treasury securities have fallen sharply this year. But any attempt to dump its stock of dollars would risk triggering a plunge in the currency. Instead, officials are mulling two ways out of the “dollar trap”: persuading the world to adopt a new global currency and encouraging the international use of the yuan.
In an essay in March, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the PBOC, argued that basing the international financial system on a national currency will tend to exacerbate global imbalances. The dollar’s reserve-currency status let America borrow cheaply, causing the country’s credit and housing bubbles to persist for longer than they otherwise would have. Mr Zhou proposed that the world should replace the dollar with a global reserve currency, the SDR (Special Drawing Rights). Created by the IMF in 1969, and now based on the weighted average of the dollar, euro, yen and pound, the SDR was designed as a reserve currency but never took off. SDRs today add up to less than 1% of total reserves.
Under Mr Zhou’s plan the amount of SDRs would be hugely increased and the basket expanded to include other currencies, notably the yuan. Mr Zhou also proposes an SDR-denominated fund, managed by the IMF, into which dollar reserves could be exchanged for SDRs. Countries could then reduce their dollar exposure without pushing down the dollar (although it is unclear who would bear any exchange-rate losses).
Brazil, India and Russia have backed Mr Zhou’s proposal. But the SDR is unlikely to become a reserve currency any time soon. It would take years to develop SDR money markets that are liquid enough to be a reserve asset. Although the IMF’s executive board approved the first issuance of SDR-denominated bonds on July 1st, as the fund attempts to boost its resources, the bonds can only be bought and traded by central banks, not by private investors.
China’s alternative ploy is to promote the yuan’s use in international trade and finance. Starting on July 6th selected firms in five Chinese cities are now allowed to use yuan to settle transactions with businesses in Hong Kong, Macau and ASEAN countries. Foreign banks will be able to buy or borrow yuan from mainland lenders to finance such trade. In June Russia and China agreed to expand the use of their currencies in bilateral trade; Brazil and China are discussing a similar idea.
The PBOC has also signed currency-swap agreements with Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea. The central bank will make yuan available to pay for imports from China if these countries are short of foreign exchange. In another recent move, Hong Kong banks are now allowed to issue yuan-denominated bonds, a step towards building an offshore yuan market.
Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC, predicts that by 2012 nearly $2 trillion of annual trade (over 40% of China’s total) could be settled in yuan, making it one of the top three currencies in global trade. Others reckon this is too optimistic. Although Chinese firms are keen to invoice in yuan, trading partners will be more reluctant. There is no real forward market for the yuan, making it hard to hedge risk, and it is not accepted by most other countries.
The yuan will be used more widely for trade over the next decade but the idea that the yuan can become a reserve currency in the near future is ridiculous, says Arthur Krober at Dragonomics, a research firm based in Beijing. Not only does China lack the economic and political track record required to underpin a reserve currency, but its currency is not fully convertible. China would need to scrap capital controls so foreigners could invest in yuan assets and then freely repatriate their capital and income, but the government is wary of moving too quickly. A reserve currency also requires a deep and liquid bond market, free from government interference. This, says Mr Krober, implies a big retreat from China’s state-led model of credit allocation.
Even if China immediately scrapped capital controls the yuan would be unlikely to challenge the dollar as a reserve currency for years. The dollar did not replace sterling until half a century after America’s economy had overtaken Britain’s. America’s GDP is around three times as big as China’s, and its total trade is still larger.
Both the SDR plan and measures to internationalise the yuan also seem to assume that China’s problem is simply that too many of its reserves are in dollars. But China’s real problem is that it is running a persistent current-account surplus; in order to keep the yuan closely tied to the dollar it has to keep buying more dollar assets. If China really wants to reduce its exposure to the greenback it must allow the yuan to rise. It would incur a loss on its existing reserves but stem future losses. But so long as China maintains its current exchange-rate policy, it is, ironically, helping keep the dollar dominant.
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